Turnaround Forecasting is About Reality, Not Wishful Thinking

Most forecasting is generally done for lending, fund raising or other investor related purposes and therefore with hope of future growth built into the forecast. Such forecasts show how loans will be repaid and investors will achieve a return on their money. Such forecasts are often more about hope than reality.

On the other hand, a turnaround forecast must be achieved and ideally exceeded and is more oriented towards improving cash flow than making future profits.  Low expectations are set so that the business does better than forecast, especially if the business is looking for support from the bank or additional finance that tends to have expensive penalties for failure. Therefore turnaround forecasting will deal with a level of detail where a turnaround business plan is essential.

So the turnaround forecast is used to show the pre-turnaround business model, and then the costs of implementing the turnaround and then the post-turnaround business model. To illustrate this take the situation of a company recently helped by K2 Business Rescue, that has shrunk and no longer needs two factory units and is looking to consolidate into one to reduce premises costs.

The less expensive but ideal unit needs three-phase electricity installing to operate the heavy equipment that is in the second unit, but the electricity supplier has switched off the power in that unit due to an overdue account. The cost of reinstating the existing supply, however, is similar to the cost of installing the new three-phase supply.

K2’s turnaround forecast showed a significant cash saving if the move was brought forward by investing in the three-phase installation which both cut premises costs and saved the cash that would otherwise have been needed to pay to reinstate electricity as well as install the three-phase. The focus on cash helped make this decision, the profit and loss benefit helped justify it. And the electricity supplier liability was bound in a CVA (company voluntary arrangement).

It challenged the orthodoxy that not spending money is going to save money whereas investing a little now could save a lot later. 

The essential point is to distinguish between short term and medium turn benefits and a turnaround forecast is looking at cash flow in the short and medium term rather. It is dealing in reality rather than hope and incorporated into the medium term is the effects of what fundamental change is being made in the short term.

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