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Banks, Lenders & Investors Cash Flow & Forecasting Finance Insolvency Turnaround

The latest insolvency statistics for the first quarter of 2020 don’t tell the whole story

insolvency statistics not the whole storyAstonishingly given the news coverage of a financial fallout due to the Coronavirus pandemic, the latest insolvency statistics for Q1 January to March 2020, show a decrease both when compared to the previous quarter and to the same quarter in 2019.
The figures, published by the Insolvency Service yesterday, showed a total of 3,883 company insolvencies with the majority again being in CVLs (Company Voluntary Liquidations).
This was a decrease of 10% compared with the last quarter of 2019, October to December, and of 6% when compared to January to March quarter of 2019.
Construction continued to have the highest number of insolvencies, followed by the wholesale and retail trade and accommodation and food services.
While these insolvency statistics cover the period before the lockdown due to the Coronavirus pandemic was imposed a drop in insolvencies is still surprising given that economies in the UK and EU had been slowing in previous months.
There is more clarity, however, from the latest Begbies Traynor Red Flag alert figures published on April 17.
They reported their highest-ever numbers of businesses in significant distress at 509,000 with the impact of the lockdown showing 15,000 more businesses in significant distress (3%) compared with Q4 2019. The vast majority of these, they found, were SMEs with under 250 employees.
There is even more concern in the Red Flag figures for businesses in critical distress, which Begbies Traynor regards as a precursor to falling into insolvency. They reported a 10% increase in the last quarter alone, although, as they note, “creditors have been held back from taking court action due to the lockdown”.
The most notable increases, they report, are a 37% increase in bars and restaurants, 21% increase in real estate and property, 11% increase in construction and 8% increase in both general retail and manufacturing.
All this is despite the various financial support measures of grants and loans announced by the Chancellor who has sought to help businesses survive the pandemic.
Having said that, loans need to be repaid and many are concerned about the future prospects for businesses and for some industries that may take some time before they return to normal, not least the Banks who understandably might be reluctant to lend to those who are unlikely to repay their loan. This might explain the numbers of businesses that have been turned down.
In the middle of an unprecedented situation like the current pandemic it is difficult to draw conclusions from trends or make meaningful assumptions about the future number of insolvencies but there is no doubt they will rise significantly.
Historically the rise has been an indicator of the country coming out of a recession although most recessions have been ‘V’ shaped where some are predicting a ‘U’ or even an ‘L’.
Clearly much will depend on for how long the lockdown continues and we should prepare for many companies, particularly those relying on travel, events, hospitality and an already-struggling High Street, to disappear altogether as Warehouse and Oasis have most recently done.
Much will also depend on consumer confidence and spending power – and how many people have lost their jobs but clearly economic and business recovery will be prolonged and painful.
 

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Finance Insolvency Turnaround

UK business insolvencies and distress indicators continue to rise

UK business in stormy watersAn alarming number of businesses are in either significant or critical financial distress, according to the latest Begbies Traynor Red Flag Alert, issued just the day before the Insolvency Service revealed the figures for Q1 (January to March) 2019.
484,000 UK firms, or 14%, are in “significant financial distress” while the numbers of those in “critical financial distress” have risen by 17% in Q1.
Begbies Traynor partner Julie Palmer said: “Many UK businesses are currently in limbo and deferring major investment decisions. This combined with consumers holding back on big ticket purchases has resulted in increasing significant distress across many sectors.
“Capital intensive sectors – such as construction and property – are suffering as both business and consumers have taken a cautious approach and limited their exposure.”
These figures would seem to be borne out by the Q1 Insolvency statistics, which showed a continuing upward trend, primarily in CVLs (Company Voluntary Liquidations) and CVAs (Creditors Voluntary Arrangements). Administrations, too, had reached their highest quarterly level since the same quarter in 2014.
CVLs increased by 6.2% compared to Q4 2018, administrations were up 21.8%. and CVAs increased by 43.1%.
Top of the list, as they have been for some time, were the wholesale and retail trade’s repair of vehicles industry sector, which saw the largest increase in underlying insolvencies, with 67 extra cases compared to the 12 months ending in December 2018. This was closely followed by the administrative and support services sector. Next highest were Manufacturing and accommodation and food services.
However, it is possible that the pressure to meet rent and rates, and the continued struggles of High Street retailing account for some of the significant rise in CVAS in the first quarter of 2019 when compared to the last three months of 2018.

No end in sight to the pressures facing UK business

While it would be easy to blame the continued uncertainty over Brexit, Begbies Traynor executive chairman, Ric Traynor, said although this was “the main driver” there were other factors involved, including the combination of faltering European economies and a potential trade war between the US and Europe.
To this list I would add the decline in trade with China which is down to these same factors combined with last year’s slowing growth there.
With the economy being predicted to flatline for the rest of the year and investment sluggish, it seems that UK businesses are facing a perfect storm in their struggle to survive and grow.

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Banks, Lenders & Investors Cash Flow & Forecasting Finance Rescue, Restructuring & Recovery

How will struggling businesses cope with an interest rate rise?

According to the latest research into struggling businesses 79,000 UK businesses (4%) say they would be unable to repay their debts if there was even a small interest rate rise.
The research, carried out in June 2017 by the insolvency and restructuring trade body R3 said this was almost a fourfold increase on the 20,000 from September 2016.
With the latest insolvency statistics for July to September (Q3) due to be published on October 27 the numbers of businesses in difficulty will become clearer but there are signs that Brexit has contributed to an increase in the number of businesses struggling where interest rates will compound their problems.
Indeed, the signs are ominous as the Bank of England, many economists and investment managers have been predicting a 0.25% rise is likely in November 2017. And the Labour party has begun preparations for a run on the pound when they are elected.
Exactly struggling business closing downhow many struggling and zombie companies, able to service only their debt repayments, there are in the economy is not clear but what is clear is that many would be pushed over the cliff edge by even a small rise in interest rates.
 
 

How can a struggling business prepare itself for an interest rate rise?

Unfortunately, there will be many that have left it too late.
There are three considerations that must be confronted which are how to fund the business, how to repay debt and crucially how to service debt when rates rise.
A company finding itself in this situation may not necessarily be a failure or inept.  It could be that it has a legacy of debt despite being profitable. This may be down to historical investment introduce development or growth during favourable economic times. Many companies today are much smaller than they were where they have downsized to become more profitable and reduce the funds needed for working capital. For many the downsizing hasn’t been a one-off exercise but continual as a form of genteel decline.
But that does not make a business immune to market forces and preparations to face a change in circumstances takes time and honesty. Indeed, a lack of investment means that a lot of companies are not prepared for the future.
While there are several options for dealing with unaffordable debts by rescheduling payments or writing them off, sustainability and viability need more than financial restructuring. This means freeing up funds to invest in improving profits, product development and growth which becomes more difficult when more cash is diverted to servicing debts.
Dealing with this conundrum is not something any struggling business should undertake alone. It is wise to use the services of a turnaround adviser to review the business in depth, help develop a plan for restructuring finances and reorganise operations to achieve sustainability and growth. And to help the company implement the plan and deal with the ensuing negotiations.

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General Rescue, Restructuring & Recovery Turnaround

K2 believes the budget is positive for business and for those in difficulties

With the latest inflation figure showing an increase to 4.4% and a lower amount of tax collected in February, both announced the day before the budget was due, arguably the Chancellor had little room for manoeuvre.
There were some small comforts for smaller enterprises though the bulk of George Osborne’s measures are likely to benefit big corporations the most.
Cutting fuel duty by 1p per litre, and delaying a planned 4p per litre rise to April 2012 along with scrapping the fuel duty escalator was welcome particularly to hauliers, couriers and other companies that depend heavily on transport.
Keeping personal tax at its current level and increasing the personal tax allowance next year will also moderate any pressure on wage inflation, which is in any case not great given the current uncertainty over employment.
The money for apprenticeships, the new enterprise zones, the relaxation of planning laws and the new decision deadline should also make life easier for businesses.
However, I believe most of the budget’s measures are likely to benefit larger corporations, rather than the smaller, UK-focused businesses.
Overall this is a budget that doesn’t load yet more pressure on struggling businesses but the real concern among businesses is the prospect on interest rate rises which will squeeze those who are struggling to survive and precipitate a significant increase in the number of formal insolvencies.