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Banks, Lenders & Investors Cash Flow & Forecasting General Rescue, Restructuring & Recovery Turnaround

Unintended consequences

Turning around a struggling economy, like turning a business in distress, is a complex process where it is wise to be mindful of the possibility of unintended consequences.
Here are a couple of examples of ideas and policies that seemed like a good idea at the time.
First, of course, was the idea that it was possible to mitigate the risks inherent in subprime mortgages by packaging them with safer loans and creating complex insurance products for protection such as Credit Default Swaps and we all know where that led us in 2008.
More recently, despite many warnings against creating new housing bubbles, the Government’s Help to Buy lending scheme was supposed to encourage construction firms to start building sorely-needed homes.  What has happened so far? Anaemic growth in house building, surging house prices and an explosion of Buy to Let mortgages.
Removing planning restrictions in order to make it easier to convert redundant High Street shops into homes is one scheme of many to revive struggling High Streets.  How about actually addressing the issue of sky high business rates, last set in 2008 before the financial crisis with a review postponed until 2017?   There are approximately 40,000 High Street shops currently empty. Why would anyone start up a new retail business when business rates are so high?
I am sure you will all be able to come up with many other examples. 
Two questions: why do we seem to be incapable of learning the lessons of history? Do we rely too much on social, economic and business models that can never accurately encompass the complexities of real life and real people?

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Banks, Lenders & Investors General Rescue, Restructuring & Recovery Turnaround

Is it all doom and gloom or are there rays of sunshine on the horizon?

It started mid-May with the Bank of England governor Sir Mervyn King upgrading the economic forecast for the rest of this year.
The British Chamber of Commerce (BCI) was also slightly more optimistic in its forecasts and reports on business confidence.
In the last few days we’ve had three forecasts on monthly performance for the manufacturing, service and construction sectors, all of them showing signs of growth.
While no-one is denying that there are some years to go on paying down household and business debt, as the Telegraph’s CItyAM editor Allister Heath emphasises this week, is his doom-laden piece predicting an even more cataclysmic crisis really justified?
He cites the need to further massively cut the welfare state and also to what he calls the “terrifying recklessness” of the Government’s proposed Help to Buy scheme that could stoke up another credit-fuelled housing bubble.
It doesn’t help that we are only building 100,000 new houses a year instead of the 300,000 that we need to satisfy demand.
However, if the scheme were to stimulate house building we might stem house price inflation and avoid a bubble. It could also be used to redress the scarcity of smaller homes for both first time buyers and older people wanting to downsize as well as provide jobs for the approximate 20% of all SMEs that a thriving construction industry could employ.
We all know that “bad news” sells papers but there is also a converse argument that we need businesses to believe they have a future. With some measure of confidence in the future, businesses and SMEs in particular might begin to invest in growth.
So are you a pessimist, a realist or an optimist?

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Banks, Lenders & Investors Cash Flow & Forecasting General Rescue, Restructuring & Recovery

Are we brewing another bubble?

Profits are up at Currys, PC World and Asda.  Outgoing Bank of England Governor Sir Mervyn King has revised upwards the bank’s growth forecast for the year and the CBI too is a bit more optimistic about “more balanced growth” in the economy.
Add to this, results from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors’ latest survey showing that house buying enquiries had reached their highest level for three years and in April the Ernst & Young ITEM Club predicting a pick up in the housing market activity to almost pre-2007 levels.
Some would argue that Chancellor Osborne’s Funding for Lending and Help to Buy schemes are finally helping potential home buyers but let’s not get carried away here.
Was it not unwise lending on housing that led to the unsustainable property bubble that precipitated the 2008 economic meltdown?
Despite the unseasonably chilly May are these reliable signs of green shoots?
Or are we collectively clutching at short term straws?
We should remember that banks are still weighted down by illiquid assets such as commercial property, investors continue to seek short term gain rather than investing in the longer term future and politicians think only in career terms of keeping their seats in the next election.
Clutching at short term straws will not fix our economic problems. Investing in the longer term, in promising new companies, in support for R & D to keep our knowledge economy competitive overseas and investing in a sensible education and business support policy that provides the skilled workers for the future through apprenticeships just might give the economy a fighting chance.
In the meantime while it’s a bit early for SMEs to shift their focus away from managing cash flow it might be appropriate to revisit the business plan and model to identify any changes that should be made to prepare to take advantage of growth should it materialise.