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Banks, Lenders & Investors Business Development & Marketing Cash Flow & Forecasting

Key Indicator – a snapshot of the current state of commodity prices

minerals among the commodity prices going downOngoing fears of a global economic recession, not to mention the escalating trade war between the USA and China, are having an impact on commodity prices.
August has been a particularly torrid month, according to analysts, with iron ore prices in particular suffering a sharp drop – up to 30% according to a report in the Financial Times, although other sources also back this up.
The ongoing uncertainty has also had its effect on oil prices, with OPEC cutting production while the USA has increased theirs. This has had its impact on the futures price of oil, with Brent Crude for October falling 31 cents, or 0.5%, to $60.18 a barrel.
According to the latest analysis from Marketwatch.com, published on August 30, “Commodities will end August with a second straight monthly loss”.
It says that the S & P GSCI index, which tracks 24 commodities across five sectors was down by more than 4% at the end of August, following a fall of 7% in July.
Gold and Silver prices, on the other hand have been steadily rising, with Silver reaching a 1-year peak last week, breaking $17 per ounce and Gold prices rising by almost 7% in August.
In the grain sector, Marketwatch reports the biggest decline in corn, of more than 0.9% over the year. Corn futures prices for August were also down, by 9%.
Bloomberg publishes a useful summary of commodity prices covering three sectors, energy, precious and industrial metals and Agriculture here.
Stability is not yet in sight with the ongoing uncertainties over global trade, fears that Germany will soon fall into recession, the outcome of Brexit still unknown and the latest set of USA-imposed tariffs on Chinese goods kicking in from September 1. As a consequence, predicting what will happen to commodity prices is going to be increasingly difficult for the foreseeable future.
This is not likely to be something businesses will be happy to hear as it makes planning more risky.
 

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General Insolvency Rescue, Restructuring & Recovery Turnaround Voluntary Arrangements - CVAs

First decline in household income for 30 years causes pain on the High Street

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported recently that in 2010 real household disposable income fell by 0.8%, its first drop since 1977.
A plethora of profit warnings from major high street retailers is therefore no surprise. JJB successfully agreed a new Company Voluntary Arrangement (CVA) for repaying debt, just two years after its last one. Oddbins’ attempts to agree a CVA were rejected which led to it going into administration.
Meanwhile travel company Thomas Cook announced a 6% fall in holiday bookings from the UK. Dixons announced that it was cutting capital expenditure by 25%. H Samuel and Ernest Jones, Argos and Comet all report falling sales. Mothercare is to close a third of its 373 UK stores and HMV has just sold Waterstones for £53 million to pay down some of its £170 million of debt.
Falling consumer confidence, the Government’s austerity measures and rising commodity prices have led to a steady erosion of disposable income. An April report indicated an increase in retail sales, up 0.2% on February’s, but this was attributed to non-store (internet) and small store sales and probably conceals a continued decline in High Street sales.
After a few years of expansion fuelled by debt, it is entirely logical that the marketplace is now facing a sharp contraction as consumers spend less money while they are concerned about their job security and repaying their huge levels of personal debt.
Many companies need to contract and reduce their cost base if they are to survive. For the High Street retailers this means concentrating on profitable stores and reviewing strategy.
Growth is likely to involve developing experience based retail outlets in dedicated shopping environments or direct sales such as online. The High Street has failed to reinvent itself and the recession has accelerated its decline.

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Business Development & Marketing Cash Flow & Forecasting General Rescue, Restructuring & Recovery Turnaround

How Many High Street Names Will Survive to the End of 2011?

Traditionally UK retailers expect sales in the fourth quarter of the year(Q4) to be significantly boosted by pre-Christmas shopping and by year end sales.
However, according to figures released on January 21 by the Office for National Statistics retail sales volumes dropped 0.8% in December compared with November. It was said to be the weakest annual performance for any December since records began in 1988.
Among those that have already reported sales drops are Clinton Cards, with sales down by 2.1% in the last five weeks of the year, and Mothercare posting a drop of 4%. HMV reported falls in December sales of 10% in the UK and 13.6% in Ireland and issued a profit warning.  Next said it had lost £22 million in Christmas sales.
Many blamed the three weeks of December snow that seized up the UK’s transport system and even online shopping options were no help because many distribution services were unable to guarantee pre-Christmas deliveries.
Sainsbury’s, however, reported sales up 10.1% for the four weeks to December 25, compared with the same period in 2009.
The Q4 figures and further retail results may show that there has been some late-December cheer as consumers rushed to beat the January 4 VAT increase, from 17.5% to 20%.
But it is looking as if the end of year boost the retail sector traditionally relies on may not have quite materialised for most and may have left them less well placed to face the difficult trading conditions expected in 2011.
The most difficult issue facing retailers will be maintaining their profit margins. Margins may have been propped up in December-January by the rush to beat the VAT increase, especially on the larger items but commodity prices on basics like cotton, wheat, rice, maize and sugar are expected to continue to rise thanks to global financial speculation.
Without a fundamental examination of the business, cost cutting (wages, premises,  equipment etc) may not be sufficient for survival in current conditions.
Perhaps a high street retail presence is no longer sustainable and more fundamental and innovative solutions, such as moving the emphasis to online selling, may be the only way some retailers can survive.