Trade wars and the threats of tariffs being imposed by the US on China have become a wearyingly familiar story as US President Donald Trump continues his policy of ‘putting the American economy first’ at all times. It is not just China in the firing line, the rhetoric has escalated with his threat made in October to introduce a series of 25% tariffs on a range of exports worth an estimated £5.8bn from the EU.
But this is not the only trade dispute in the global economy as Japan and South Korea’s disagreements threaten the production of smartphones, computers and other electronics, while yet another Brexit delay, and now a UK general election, all add to the uncertain economic outlook in both the EU and the UK.
Growth has been slowing in India, particularly in its automotive sector, and to an extent in China also.
At the same time there seems to have been an upsurge in popular political protests across the world with demonstrations taking place in Spain, Iraq, Lebanon, Chile, Venezuela and Hong Kong, to name but a few.
Arguably, political unrest, too, has consequences for the global economy, particularly in a place like Hong Kong, which has for years been a focus for dynamic business activity but is now in recession after five months of civil unrest. Unrest has also led to Chile having to cancel its hosting of the November APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) meeting at which the United States and China had been expected to sign a deal to ease their trade war. As yet no alternative venue has been announced.
The growth in global trade may have slowed to 3.0% this year – the lowest since the 2009 recession – according to International Monetary Fund (IMF). Data provider Refinitiv has reported that Global deal making has eased to the slowest pace in more than two years, with activity falling 11% so far this year to $2.8 trillion.
Not surprisingly all this has prompted the IMF to predict that global economic growth will be just 3% this year, its lowest level since the financial crisis and a downgrade from the organisation’s April prediction.
Earlier in the year it also warned in its global financial stability report that the next major economic crisis would be similar to the financial crisis of 2008; while it didn’t say when it believed this is a likely consequence of the estimated $19 trillion corporate debt mountain in eight major economies. This warning was echoed by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in its annual health check of the global financial system.
The new IMF head Kristalina Georgieva has also warned that Brexit in whatever form will be “painful”, adding to the effects of a global slowdown.
Meanwhile with Germany in recession and the EU economy stuttering, ECB chairman Mario Draghi announced a cut in interest rates to a new record low at minus 0.5 percent as part of a broader stimulus package making it expensive for banks to hoard cash.
The signs are not looking good for improvements in the global economy in 2020 and it is becoming increasingly clear, in my view, that politics is contributing to and inextricably entangled with the stormy economic weather besetting business.