Tea, the UK’s favourite beverage, could become a luxury if analysis by HSBC of a no-deal Brexit is to be believed.
The analysis, published by Business Insider in January, puts the amount of food imported into the UK at 80% if ingredients for processing products are included. Tea, for example, may be processed in the UK but is not grown here.
The prospect of no easily-available cuppas should really concentrate the mind!
Joking aside, an examination of UK food imports and exports indicates just how closely-integrated the food and food processing supply chain really is, and how much relies on the EU.
An analysis of the food industry must cover trade in both ingredients and processed foods. It is complicated by the fact that some ingredients, such as beef, pork and lamb, are often produced in UK but exported for processing and then re-imported as finished products such as cuts of meat ready-packaged for sale or as ingredients in ready-meals. This is the result of us in UK having so few processing facilities.
A further complication for UK food producers/farmers is the shortage of labour, from overseas workers for picking and packing to HGV (Heavy Goods Vehicles) drivers for transport.
This all suggests the likelihood that the cost of food imported into the UK is likely to rise sharply.
What food and drink does the UK export and to where?
According to the most recent statistics from the FDF (Food and Drink Federation) the top ten UK exports by value, in order, for 2018 were:
- Whisky
- Chocolate
- Cheese
- Salmon
- Wine
- Gin
- Beef
- Beer
- Breakfast cereals
- Soft drinks
At the moment it calculates that some 75% of this trade is to countries within the EU and as such may mean that new trade agreements, tariffs and so on may have to be developed with both EU and non-EU countries. Some UK food products have EU Protected Food Name status.
Non-EU target markets are likely to include New Zealand, Canada and/or the USA, China and other Asian countries but again all will need trade agreements to be put in place.
ADAS, the UK’s largest independent provider of agricultural and environmental consultancy, rural development services and policy advice, has analysed some of the potential opportunities for the UK to pursue in developing food exporting outside the EU.
For beef and veal, it suggests China, rest of Asia and Africa for offal and the USA for premium cuts but lists among the UK’s weaknesses its limited market access, uncompetitive pricing and the lack of processing facilities.
It is a similar story with sheep products, with the additional factor of already-established competition from Australia and New Zealand. Pork exports could be targeted at South Korea, Vietnam, China and the rest of S Asia but this will take time to put in place.
For dairy products ADAS sees opportunities in countries where there is a growing and affluent middle class, such as China, the Middle East and North Africa.
The UK already has an established global trade for its cereals and oilseeds with Algeria, Tunisia and Japan and here, too there may be potential for further market development.
The AHDB, (Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, Stoneleigh, Warwickshire), too, sees potential for expanding UK food exporting particularly in dairy products.
Its analysis says: “The main trade-related opportunities of Brexit for the UK dairy industry will focus on displacing imports or growing new export markets. If the UK manages to negotiate a trade deal with the EU allowing tariff-free access, then the likelihood is for business as usual with the EU.
“However, if not, any import tariffs imposed by the UK could provide an opportunity to substitute a number of imports with British milk. Experience from the EU suggests that tariffs may limit the scale of imports of commodity-type products, although speciality products will probably still reach the UK.
“Combined with increased supply chain investment, this could see the UK progress as an industry.”
While opportunities for export are identified in all the analyses, they are contingent on the ability to negotiate Free Trade or Low Tariff agreements with potential customers as well as fending off already-existing arrangements that have been established by the EU.
The other glaring UK deficiency is in the scarcity of in-country facilities for processing foods for export.
It also remains to be seen how UK farmers and growers will be affected by the loss of various agricultural subsidies that have protected EU farmers for many years.